The current goals are unachievable; we need a better road map away from fossil fuels

By Gareth Lewis

[Edited for nontechnical readers by David Siegel]

Net Zero is deemed to be a moral imperative these days. The massive global energy transition that is now lurching forward assumes the grid-suitability of renewables like wind and solar combined with new storage technologies that don’t exist yet. Confusion abounds over the best way to achieve this goal. I fear we are on a path to seriously flawed energy policy.

Accordingly, I have set three tasks for myself in this article:


Tristan Harris is the guy behind the amazing movie, The Social Dilemma. Tristan has a strong desire to help humanity use digital platforms in ways that benefit rather than trick them and a strong belief that we must protect the natural world, to create a sustainable future for humans and wildlife.

I encourage everyone to see his movie, visit his web site, and sign up for his newsletter. And listen to all his podcasts. Tristan mentions climate change in almost every one of his podcasts. …


I have been working on switching from a very old-school vertical racket-face forehand to a modern forehand, in which the racket face is closed and the wrist lags the shoulder turn.

The momentum initiated by the shoulder release lays the racket back naturally with no muscle power. What generates the racket-head speed is simply body mechanics as the torso unwinds the load.

In this series of videos you’ll learn the basic three-step technique:

Principles


In February, I posted this fascinating lecture by Will Happer on LinkedIn:

A recent talk by Professor Will Happer, physicist of Princeton. If you notice comments attacking the person rather than his data and arguments, that is a desperate last-ditch effort to try to confuse people. From 1991–1993, Happer was Director of Energy Research at the U.S. Department of Energy, overseeing a research budget of $3 billion. Certain frequent commenters here might know more than he does about climate, but THEY MIGHT NOT.

It got a few comments from detractors. The usual nonsense.

The Dangerous Lecture

Then, in late April, I Posted…


My goal is to fix the world by focusing on the big problems first. This one is mostly about the USA, its problems, and how to fix them. First, a summary of major problem types, then a list of the largest problems we face in moving society forward, a note on political parties, and a set of solutions. This essay can be used as the basis for discussion or a class on critical thinking, society, and the future.

I am a heretic. A heretic challenges the fundamental assumptions of basic beliefs. In my view, the next thirty years are going…


NOTE: This piece by Willis Eschenbach is reposted here with his permission.

I got to thinking about how little the atmospheric CO2 level has changed over most of the last two thousand years. Here is the CO2 data from ice cores (colored dots) and from the Mauna Loa CO2 measuring stations (red/black line).

Figure 1. Ice core CO2, and Mauna Loa instrumentally-measured CO2.

Note that there is good agreement between the thirteen different ice cores, as well as good agreement during the period of the overlap between the ice core and the instrumental CO2 data.

Then I overlaid the CO2 record on the Ljundqvist reconstruction of the temperature variability of…


NASA map of increased green cover

When Bayesians disagree, they bet on a testable/falsifiable outcome of their beliefs. The one who loses pays the price of learning and updates his/her belief system accordingly.

I had to change my belief system the hard way. In 1991, I wrote a book on global warming, explaining the standard greenhouse-gas theory and saying we have to curtail our carbon emissions. 15 years later, when the predicted warming didn’t show up, I started looking into the situation and realized it was simply a mistaken theory that had caught on through repetition, celebrities, and public relations. Of course, people strongly invested in…


I read papers, articles, and watch a lot of videos. Each month, I post my recent meanderings. If you want to follow me, just leave this page open in a tab and come back to watch/read what you haven’t yet, until you’re at the bottom.

An amazing discovery: Radio Garden is a Google map of the earth with thousands of FM stations. Click a green dot and hear what that station is playing, from Kamchatka to Capetown.

Here’s the story of the moving sidewalks of Paris from before 1900:


How energy and growth are connected, while the digital economy and growth are not

UNTIL RECENTLY, my mental model of economic growth was 1) the convenience of electricity coming into the home drove growth during the first half of the 20th century, then 2) there were wars and manufacturing for a few decades, which was good for growth, then 3) things slowed down a bit in the 1970s and 80s, but then 4) computers came along and the digital revolution picked up the pace of innovation and 5) the Internet accelerated it.

I was wrong.

That’s not what happened. What happened was electricity.

The Rise and Fall of American Growth

I learned a lot reading Robert Gordon’s book The Rise and…


Last month, I didn’t publish any links because I was busy writing Ninety Nine Percent of All Conversations on Climate are Wrong, which I hope you will read and share. This month, more content for critical thinkers …

The Unstoppable Momentum of Outdated Science, by Roger Pielke, Jr. — an important paper showing how many “important papers” are based on silliness.

Vitalik Buterin on neutrality.

Yes, deep fakes are good, but some people are creating software that detects them:

Cool: Building a digital version of a city helps it become more resilient.

This is from Inreality.show:

How about…

David Siegel

Provocateur, professional heretic, slayer of myths, speaker of truthiness to powerfulness, and defender of the Oxford comma.

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